I’ve been quietly obsessing over Ohio’s early voting numbers all month. Here’s what the numbers do (and don’t) tell us.
First, the basics. Nearly 1.19 million people already have voted early with a week to go until the Nov. 3 election, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office. At the current rate ballots are coming in, early voting is well on track to exceed the 1.47 million early votes cast for the last midterm election in November 2022, which at the time was an all-time record.
We have no way of knowing who these people have voted for. But we do know some details about the early voters, thanks to the running absentee voter file that’s updated each day by the SOS office:
- 40% of the state’s Democratic-affiliated voters have cast ballots, compared to 25% of the state’s Republican-affiliated voters. This works out to 392,361 votes cast by Democrats and 339,115 by Republicans.
- Meanwhile, 557,614 votes have been cast by unaffiliated voters – whom the state defines as having not voted in a partisan primary since 2024. It’s worth noting that the vast majority of them voted in the November 2024 election, but one-third didn’t vote in November 2022.
TargetEarly, a Democratic data firm, has modeled the early vote so far. The firm projects voters’ behavior based on their electoral history and demographics, including where they live. But they can’t actually tell who these voters are supporting.
Here are its estimates:
- At the moment, 49% of the votes cast are from Democrats, 43% are from Republicans, and 8% are from independents whose political views they aren’t confident enough to try to identify.
- At the same time in 2024, 41% were from Democrats, 50% were from Republicans and 9% were from independents.
- At the same time in 2022, 44% came from Democrats, 40% came from Republicans and 16% came from independents.
So as it stands right now, my best guess is that this election will have a more Democratic-leaning electorate than 2024 and 2022, and possibly higher turnout than 2022. At the least, Democratic voters are more motivated to vote early this year compared to recent elections.
One reason might be that some Democrats who normally vote on Election Day are instead casting ballots early this year, which would just mean the party’s typical votes are being shifted. At the end of the day, Ohio is a Republican-leaning state with more Republican voters than Democratic ones. It will really matter who actually votes on Nov. 3 and who remains on the sidelines.
I often like to joke that it will all come down to turnout, which is like saying the team that puts more points on the board wins. But it’s true.
-Andrew
Republicans, Democrats spend to hype up outsider longshots
We’ve written in the past about Republicans’ efforts to boost Greg Levy, the socialist running for the U.S. Senate in Ohio, in a thinly veiled effort to siphon some votes from Democrat Sherrod Brown. The mailers have emphasized ideas from the left that Levy supposedly supports, like “abolishing billionaires,” while depicting Brown as a puppet of President Donald Trump.
Ohio Democrats are using the same playbook.
For one, they answered the Levy maneuver with their own mailer, declaring that “a vote for Greg Levy is a vote for Donald Trump and Jon Husted.”
And the Ohio Democratic Party distributed a mailer authorized by Brown that plays up libertarian candidate Bill Redpath as a bona fide Second Amendment defender. The mailers are a fairly naked attempt to siphon some votes from Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
You can hear echoes of the Ohio strategy from Alaska, home of another battleground state, where the outcome could help determine control of the U.S. Senate. There, Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan. The New York Times just reported on what appears to be an organized effort from Democrats to recruit other Alaskans who are also named Dan Sullivan to run as outside challengers and presumably sap votes from the incumbent Dan Sullivan.
And they say we have a two-party system.
-Jake
Humans are on the ballot. So are the machines
By next Wednesday, Ohio should be able to answer the question – “What do voters think of data centers?” – 18 times over.
Small towns all over the state – in Ashtabula County to the northeast to Butler County to the southwest and many places in between – are considering exclusion zones or blanket bans of industrial-scale data centers.
It’s still too early to say whether Conserve Ohio, an activist organization devoted to the issue, will succeed in getting a statewide moratorium on the ballot next year. But if they do make the ballot, this year’s 18 races should give a clearer sense of whether America’s opposition to data centers runs as deep as public polling suggests.
-Jake
Data center (vendor) tax credits
Speaking of data centers: Gov. Mike DeWine has pressed pause on all new sales tax break deals for data centers in light of the policy of ballooning sales tax breaks.
That hasn’t stopped the data center vendors.
The Tax Credit Authority – an independent body that approves tax breaks – this week issued job creation tax credits to three companies working in the data center orbit:
- Forgent Power, which makes electrical hardware for data centers
- Avtron Power Solutions, which helps test and validate data center operations
- Rittal, which does IT for data centers
The credits vary by company but generally are issued as a percentage (1.6% to 1.9%) of new payroll added. The three companies forecast adding 417 jobs worth about $34.8 million in new payroll. The credit lasts for nine to 10 years, depending on the specific company.
-Jake
A Shrek-sized legal bill
Earlier this month, a jury convicted D.J. Byrnes, author of The Rooster newsletter and its accompanying brand of made-for-online hijinks, of telephonic harassment. The charges revolved around Byrnes taunting a powerful state senator with a text message that included a crude animation of Shrek holding his exposed penis. If you missed it, you can read our coverage of the unusual trial here.
Byrnes spent about 24 hours in jail after he was arrested. He faced up to six months in prison but was sentenced to only a $200 fine. Byrnes, plus some legal interest groups, including the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, have argued the prosecution amounted to a flexing of state power to silence a critic and gadfly – a violation of constitutionally protected free speech.
While $200 is no bigger than a speeding ticket, I was curious what the Rooster’s legal bill looks like. Byrnes owes his lawyers more than $25,200, according to invoices he showed Signal Statewide. It underscores how damaging a criminal accusation, let alone a conviction, can be to more than just your reputation.
-Jake
In the news
Still have your Ohio mail ballot? Here’s how to make sure it counts: About 235,500 Ohioans have requested absentee ballots in the mail but not returned them. Voters have until Nov. 3 to get their ballots in. Read more from Andrew.
Here’s who bought political ads during the Ohio State-Indiana football game: The Oct. 17 matchup between Ohio State University and Indiana University brought with it a deluge of political campaign commercials. We took a dive into the groups behind the ads — and who’s backing them. Read more from Andrew and Jake.
Christian conservative podcaster detained by ICE at Columbus airport: A Department of Homeland Security official said Samuel Sey, 39, is set for removal from the country. He has publicly praised Trump’s mass deportation agenda as just and compatible with Christian beliefs. Read more here.
Is Ohio on the cusp of an all-Republican state Supreme Court? Republicans have won all six of the last six Ohio Supreme Court races, held under new rules requiring candidates to appear on the ballot under partisan labels. If Justice Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, loses to Republican Colleen O’Donnell, the hot streak could give the GOP 7-0 control of the bench as cases on abortion and school vouchers loom. Read more here.
What Ohio’s Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy say they’ll do to lower costs: Ohioans have been hit by the rising costs of gas, property taxes, utilities and healthcare. We laid out exactly how much costs have risen and described the different plants Ramaswamy and Acton have to deal with them. Read more from Andrew here.
A tabloid’s take on the Ohio governor’s race: The Daily Mail reports Amy Acton’s estranged mother, featured in a recent Ramaswamy campaign ad, lived in a Pennsylvania church’s parking lot for two and a half years starting in 2023. The British tabloid interviewed church staff as well as the family of a second young relative Acton’s stepfather was accused of raping in the 1970s shortly before he was charged with raping Acton. Read more here.
Outside deep pockets spending big money to fight Ohio’s local data center bans. Tech companies and their front groups have donated more than $400,000 to defeat local ballot measures, according to multiple county campaign finance reports. The figure is likely an undercount. Read more from Cleveland.com’s Anna Staver here.
