House Bill 646 would have sliced in half the size of a lucrative tax break data centers receive in Ohio while imposing new environmental and electric-use standards on the increasingly unpopular facilities that house and run AI systems.
But the legislation stalled this summer. The latest available lobbying records show it did so under the weight of a staggering 534 lobbying registrations, where paid political advocates must disclose who they worked for and on what bill. These registrations include about 135 employers hiring about 225 lobbyists, some of whom represent more than one client.
For comparison, lawmakers’ comprehensive overhaul of marijuana and hemp regulations in Ohio attracted 450 registrations. The five bills DeWine signed to overhaul property taxes attracted between 165 and 356 lobbying registrations, depending on the bill.
Google is now represented by 23 registered lobbyists in Columbus; Meta by nine; Amazon by seven; OpenAI by five. – Jake
How third-party candidates influence elections
A mysterious, apparently Republican group spent $400,000 last weekend trying to boost socialist candidate Greg Levy in this year’s U.S. Senate race, much to Levy’s dismay.
The episode is a reminder of one of the ways the politically powerful try to game elections – by trying to use minor parties to siphon votes from their opponents.
It’s also a reminder of the role minor-party candidates could play in this year’s election in Ohio, which is looking to be the closest we’ve had in years.
Minor parties object to this framing.
“I don’t know what to say to either candidate. They should have worked harder. They should have earned it,” said Libertarian congressional candidate Tom Pruss in a 2024 interview with Jake. He was speaking after his candidacy arguably siphoned enough Republican support to swing a Trump-backing congressional district to Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Kaptur defeated Republican Derek Merrin by 2,382 votes, compared to Pruss’s 15,381-vote total. Kaptur and Merrin are set for a rematch this year.
But generally, politicos believe that in the U.S. two-party system, the presence of Libertarian candidates benefits Democrats while the presence of minor liberal parties benefits Republicans.
Recent academic research has backed this notion up.
Chris Devine, a University of Dayton political scientist who’s studied the issue, said that in recent presidential elections, roughly 4 to 5 in 10 votes cast for Green Party candidates – the most successful national liberal minor party – otherwise would have gone to the Democratic candidate.
For Libertarians, the result is “messier” because their ideology mixes limited government with liberal social values.
But overall, they still have a net benefit for Democrats. About 3 in 10 votes for a Libertarian candidate otherwise would have gone to a Republican, while between 1 and 2 in 10 would go to a Democrat. In state races, the effect can be starker in part because voters don’t have as firm opinions about the candidates, Devine said.
“It’s harder to change people’s minds about Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris,” Devine said. “It’s a little easier to change their minds about Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown.”
Levy is the only statewide socialist candidate.
But Libertarians have fielded candidates in a number of top races: governor, U.S. Senate and secretary of state, as well as in competitive congressional races in Ohio’s 1st, 10th and 15th districts.
Extrapolating from Devine’s research, a Libertarian candidate could plausibly net a Democratic candidate around 0.5% to 1% of the vote, which could make the difference in a tight race. As for Levy, it’s unclear whether voters will realize he’s a socialist, since Ohio’s ballot laws require him to be listed as an “independent” candidate. – Andrew
Gas prices rise, tax break be damned
A joint play from Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Republicans in the Ohio Legislature paused Ohio’s gas tax for 90 days starting Oct. 4. The state will cover the cost with a roughly $725 million tax surplus from the current fiscal year.
So did the maneuver work?
The average gallon of unleaded gasoline cost $4.08 on Oct. 3, per AAA. Prices dipped as low as $3.72 after lawmakers shaved off the 38.5-cent tax. But 10 days in the 90-day pause, the variety of market and geopolitical forces that dictate gas prices has washed out much of the effect.
Today, gas is $3.83. The New York Times reported Wednesday that the fighting and tensions in the Middle East are driving up prices.
Prices will continue to change by the Nov. 3 elections and through the 90-day pause, which ends Jan. 2. Among my curiosities: Will gas prices surpass the psychologically important $4 threshold by Election Day? Will an interim Ohio attorney general aggressively enforce alleged failures of oil companies or retailers to pass on tax savings to customers? Will the next one? Will the Iran war outlive the gas tax hiatus it indirectly caused? And will lawmakers allow the break to end in January, presumably causing an overnight price spike?
At least one elected West Virginia Republican lawmaker has since reportedly called on the Mountain State to follow Ohio’s lead here. – Jake
Ramaswamy got dinged on his taxes
Shortly after launching his campaign for Ohio governor, Vivek Ramaswamy paid a few hundred dollars in back taxes after Butler County officials found he had improperly claimed a property tax break for a house there in which he no longer lived.
The Butler County Auditor’s Office notified Ramaswamy of the issue in writing in March 2025, according to documents obtained through a public records request. The county told Ramaswamy that $357.72 would be added to his next tax bill. Ramaswamy paid the county back on April 11, county tax records show.
The amount reflects the value of a 2.5% owner-occupancy tax break Ramaswamy received in 2023 and 2024 for a four-bedroom home he owns in Butler County. After checking voting records and media reports, county election officials determined that Ramaswamy had moved to Upper Arlington in the Columbus area in 2023, making him ineligible for the break for those two years.
Butler County officials checked into the matter after they got a question from the public, a spokesperson for Auditor Nancy Nix said this week. The letter to Ramaswamy was dated March 7, about a week after the Republican entrepreneur officially launched his campaign for governor at a Butler County event.
Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t respond to a question about the tax issue. But Butler County officials say it’s common for people to not be aware of the tax credit and to not remember to cancel it if they move somewhere else within the state.
Ramaswamy isn’t the only prominent Ohio politician to get tripped up over the tax credit. Then-Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, paid a couple hundred dollars in back taxes in 2024 over a similar issue. – Andrew
On the calendar
- The attorney general candidates John Kulewicz and Keith Faber will debate in Youngstown on Monday.
- Election Day is in 19 days.
Barack Obama to campaign in Ohio for Democrats Sherrod Brown, Amy Acton: The Democratic former president is appearing in Cleveland on Saturday, Oct. 24. Obama is the latest national political figure to appear in Ohio – following two recent appearances from President Donald Trump and another by Vice President JD Vance. Read more from Andrew here.
Ohio cracks down on prediction markets as they flood elections with cash. The Ohio Casino Control Commission last week demanded that the self-described “prediction markets” halt what regulators say are plainly illegal sports betting operations. The market makers say they should be regulated by the federal government, not states. Read more from Jake here.
Ohio blogger D.J. Byrnes – “The Rooster” – found guilty of telecommunications harassment. Byrnes sent Ohio Sen. Jerry Cirino text messages containing political commentary and a digitally altered picture of Shrek, depicting the ogre from the movie franchise with an exposed penis. Read more from Frank W. Lewis and Jake here.
GOP cancels spending for Landsman challenger: The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher reports that congressional Republicans’ main outside political group has canceled planned advertising boosting Republican Eric Conroy’s challenge of Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in Cincinnati. The move is part of a broader relocation of GOP resources as they try to limit the damage this November. Read more from Goldmacher.
