The Dayton area could be an emerging political battleground in Ohio. And it’s not just because President Donald Trump is visiting there this Saturday.
Federal campaign finance records show that Democrats in recent weeks have ramped up their efforts to defeat longtime Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Dayton. Medium Buying, a Republican political ad tracking firm in Columbus, said groups have reserved or spent $6.5 million on Dayton radio and TV stations for the 10th District race.
Spending is a big way to tell what the parties really think about a race. That total is more in line with a competitive race than the relatively easy elections Turner has experienced in the past.
Of the $6.5 million in spending, $4.32 million comes from Democrats and their allies. About half the money comes from a political action committee with close ties to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and the rest is from a prominent liberal dark-money network.
Republicans are responding with $2.25 million in ads of their own. Nearly all the money comes from two PACs with close ties to Trump and his main political action committee, MAGA Inc.
Trying to defeat Turner has been a long-term project for Democrats that has always fallen short. In 2024, Turner cruised to reelection with a 19-point victory, even as Trump won the district by a relatively narrow 6 percentage points.
But Democrats argue this year is different.
Michael McGovern, a Democratic strategist in Dayton, cited Democratic challenger Kristina Knickerbocker’s background as an Air Force nurse and a recent poll that showed 60% of voters in the Dayton/Cincinnati area disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Other Democrats also have cited supportive comments that Turner has made about the objectives behind the Iran war.
“Between a good environment and a good candidate, that opens the door for resources to come in to make sure voters have the information they need about the candidates in front of them,” said McGovern, the leader of the Innovation Ohio PAC, which has spent $250,000 on anti-Turner ads.
Republicans say they aren’t especially worried. A spokesperson for Turner described Knickerbocker as being propped up by “millions of out-of-state PAC dollars” and criticized her for supporting a government-run public option for health insurance.
State Rep. Phil Plummer, the chair of the Montgomery County Republican Party, described Democrats as “testing the waters” with Turner.
“I’ve seen a lot of commercials,” Plummer said. “But Mike Turner’s been great for the region.”
A major tax runs out of gas
“You’ve got to give it to him. He played it well.”
That’s what Democrat Nickie Antonio, the minority leader in the Ohio Senate, said of her Republican counterpart, Republican Senate President Rob McColley. Her begrudging praise came after McColley and other legislative Republicans orchestrated a hastily planned but successful vote Wednesday to put a 90-day pause on Ohio’s gas tax.
Republicans did so by getting enough Democratic support for the measure to pass it with an emergency clause, which allows the law to take effect immediately after Gov. Mike DeWine signs it. At the same time, the passage of the bill and related maneuvers prevented Democrats from adding amendments on unrelated topics, keeping the minority party from scoring political points.
House Bill 519 will suspend Ohio’s 38.5-cent tax on regular gas and 47-cent tax on diesel for 90 days. The law is estimated to cost Ohio about $725 million in lost tax revenue.
Democrats had planned to use the vote as an opportunity to force Republicans to vote on hot-button issues via bill amendments on topics like the Iran war or data centers. But Republicans blocked floor amendments by using their control of the chamber’s rules.
How much of the money will get passed on to ordinary drivers? And will this even matter on Election Day? Consider it a $725 million bet.
Read more about the vote from Andrew and Jake here.
Refugees lose Medicaid Oct. 1
Starting Oct. 1, President Donald Trump’s signature legislative proposal, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, makes some of its first tangible Medicaid cuts.
Specifically, it removes refugees, parolees, asylees, and victims of domestic violence and human trafficking from Medicaid eligibility unless they have lawful permanent residency in the U.S. (often referred to as a “green card”).
We wanted to figure out how many Ohio residents were going to lose coverage under the new rules. So we reached out to the state and county departments of job and family services.
Instead of a clear answer, we received seemingly disconnected figures from the state, which administers the program, and from the county offices, which conduct eligibility determinations.
The state thinks somewhere between 3,500 and 6,500 Ohioans will lose coverage. But for the five of 10 of Ohio’s largest counties that answered our questions, they collectively offered a range of 14,500 to 18,500, suggesting a far higher figure. Methodology and confidence in the data varied by county.
The state declined to explain the discrepancy. The counties couldn’t either.
But one thing has changed since our story was published – one source provided us with an email that the executive director of the Ohio Job & Family Services Directors’ Association sent around to members.
“The Governor’s office has reached out to request that county JFS departments refer media requests for Medicaid enrollment/caseload trends back to the Ohio Department of Medicaid in order to ensure a consistent methodology,” it states.
You can read that story here.
Democrats block Husted’s data center bill
U.S. Senate Democrats blocked legislation Wednesday championed by Jon Husted, a Republican incumbent in the midst of his first statewide election since 2014. He said the proposal would make data centers pay the costs of connecting to the electrical grid, a key issue driving opposition to data centers. He called his bill, focused on a top midterm issue, “the only game in town” as far as data centers go.
“This bill passing is the only way to get a chance to prove to the American people before the midterm elections whose side you’re on,” Husted said, according to the Associated Press.
Democrats’ stiff-arm of the bill will likely be used against them in political ads but will go unnoticed in practice. That’s because the bill would not have forced data centers to really do much. It said regulators would only have to “consider” certain issues over a two-year period. Democrats and analysts described it as somewhere between toothless and “irrelevant.”
Members of Conserve Ohio, a citizens’ group working to put a statewide data center ban on the November 2027 ballot, were at the Statehouse on Wednesday. They weren’t impressed with Husted’s bill.
Nick Owens, a Republican Brown County lawyer representing the group, said the legislation incentivizes data center operators to build their own on-site power plants, many of which will be fueled by natural gas.
“I live in rural Ohio, and I believe my way of life is under attack,” he said. “Kids shouldn’t have to get asthma because of a data center.”
Campaign ads get more provocative — and profane
In Sherrod Brown’s new ad, voters are seen watching a clip of Husted in an interview saying that people living in poverty are “not very experienced at navigating the real world.” One man reels and says, “listen to this shit.” Another looks at the camera and says, “fuck that.”
Senate Republicans dropped an ad narrated by a woman who says a doctor instructed her parents that she was transgender. She criticizes Brown for his alleged support of “sex change surgery for minors” and says he’ll do “anything to hold on to power, no matter the cost.”
Elon Musk gets behind Issue 3
America PAC, a group founded by mega-billionaire Elon Musk, is promoting Issue 3, which would enshrine Ohio’s current voter ID law in the state constitution. Voters got mailers this week promoting the measure. The campaign for or against Issue 3 otherwise has been pretty quiet.
Coming up
- Donald Trump is speaking in Vandalia, Ohio, on Oct. 3
- The voter registration deadline is Oct. 5 (Monday!)
- Early and absentee voting begins Oct. 6
In the news
Ohio colleges enroll fewer international students — again. This fall’s declining numbers could have consequences far beyond campuses, including for Ohio’s workforce. Read more from Amy Morona.
The New York Times wrote two interesting stories about Ohio’s marquee races, including one about voters who seem to stubbornly believe that Sherrod Brown is an incumbent and another about Vivek Ramaswamy and his private jet.
