U.S. House Democrats have said they’re looking to play offense in Ohio – even though doing so would involve flipping districts comfortably won by President Donald Trump in 2024.
They’re starting to put actions behind those words.
House Majority PAC, the main super political action committee working on behalf of U.S. House Democrats, plans to spend $10.8 million on ads in five Ohio congressional districts later this year, the group announced Thursday in Ohio plans shared exclusively with Signal Statewide. It represents the group’s most aggressive spending in Ohio over the past eight years.
Of that, about $6.1 million will be spent defending Democrats, with the largest sum ($3 million) going to defend Toledo Rep. Marcy Kaptur.
The remaining $4.7 million would be spent trying to defeat a pair of Republicans – Dayton Rep. Mike Turner and Columbus Rep. Mike Carey – who represent districts that Trump won by 7 and 10 percentage points, respectively, in 2024.
Notably, the plan calls for spending nearly as much trying to defeat Turner (just less than $2.9 million) as the group plans to spend defending Kaptur, who faces the biggest uphill battle of any incumbent Democrat in the country.
Ohio Democrats have spent years fantasizing about defeating Turner, a former Dayton mayor who’s been comfortably elected 11 times since he first took office in 2003. Meanwhile, they’ve eyed Carey’s district as being a potential target someday as the Columbus area has added more and more Democratic voters.
But the spending marks the first time national Democrats have targeted either district in recent history – a notable shift for a party that has spent years pulling resources out of Ohio as the state has trended Republican.
Over the past eight years, the most the group spent trying to flip a Republican-held district was in 2020, when it spent $3 million trying to defeat then-Rep. Steve Chabot, of Cincinnati, federal campaign finance records show. The group spent nearly $6 million in Ohio in 2024, all of which went to protect two Democratic incumbents.
The shift toward offense comes as Democrats increasingly believe this year’s national political environment will benefit them. Conditions could end up resembling 2018 – when Democrats won dozens of competitive races and gained majorities in the House and Senate.
A statement from House Majority PAC President Mike Smith said House Democrats are “firmly on offense,” while referencing the war in Iran and rising health care prices.
“HMP’s historic television and digital ad reservations reflect that Democrats are firmly on offense heading into November,” Smith said.
The spending references reserved ad time and digital ads in TV markets. The amounts aren’t set in stone. Political groups often try to reserve advertising time in advance so they can lock in lower prices, and later increase or decrease their spending as races develop.
Turner’s and Carey’s districts still remain outer-reach targets for Democrats – both Republicans won their races by far larger margins than Trump did in 2024. Republicans redrew both districts last year too – with Democrats signing off to avert a more GOP-leaning map – giving each Republican a couple extra percentage points of breathing room.
But it’s still the latest tangible sign that both parties view Ohio as a congressional battleground this year.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, announced earlier this month that it would spend $79 million defending U.S. Sen. Jon Husted. That’s the most of any state this year and a sign of how seriously Republicans are taking the potential of an election loss in Ohio. Republicans are favored to hold the Senate, since losing the majority would involve them losing multiple red-leaning states like Ohio.
Notably, House Majority PAC’s Ohio plan does not target Rocky River Rep. Max Miller, another incumbent Republican whose district Democrats have eyed. Trump won Miller’s Cleveland-area district by 11 points in 2024, which apparently is too steep a hill for Democrats to climb for now.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the spending.
9th Congressional District
$3 million in ads are planned for Toledo, which corresponds with Kaptur’s district. She narrowly won reelection in 2024 even as Trump won her district by 7 percentage points.
Republicans redrew her district last year to make it a +11 Trump district, giving Kaptur the largest uphill climb of any incumbent Democrat in the country.
Several Republicans are competing for the Republican nomination in the May 5 primary election, including ex-state Rep. Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, Alea Nadeem and former Immigration and Customs Enforcement deputy director Madison Sheahan.
10th Congressional District
$2.88 million will be spent in Dayton, corresponding with Turner’s 10th Congressional District.
Most recently, Turner was reelected by 18 percentage points in 2024, while Trump won the district by 6 points.
But after Republicans added some GOP-voting areas during redistricting last year, the district is now +7 Trump.
Several candidates are running for the Democratic nomination, with many Democratic officials coalescing behind Kristina Knickerbocker, a nurse and U.S. Air Force veteran. Also running are Janice Beckett, a retired attorney; David Esrati, an activist; Manuel Foggie, a Hamilton County court employee; Jan Kinner, a retired U.S. Air Force colonel and Tony Pombo, an IT professional.
1st Congressional District
$1.9 million will be spent in Cincinnati, corresponding with Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman’s 1st Congressional District. Republicans redrew Landsman’s district last year to make it tightly competitive, converting it from a district Trump lost by 6 points to one he won by nearly 3 points.
Eric Conroy, a former CIA officer, is likely to be Republicans’ nominee for the district after Trump endorsed him, prompting his main rival in the primary, dentist Steven Erbeck, to drop out of the race.
15th Congressional District
$1.8 million is slated to be spent in Columbus, corresponding with Carey’s 15th Congressional District. In 2024, Trump won the district by 9 percentage points, although in its current form, it’s a +10 Trump district.
Two candidates are running for the Democratic nomination – Adam Miller, a former state representative who lost to Carey by 13 percentage points in 2024, and Don Leonard, an Ohio State University professor.
13th Congressional District
Finally, $1.175 million is planned to be spent on ads in Cleveland, which Democrats said corresponded with Akron Rep. Emilia Sykes, whose district extends into the Cleveland suburbs.
Democrats have come to view Sykes as being safe in her seat after Republicans redrew her district from a 50-50 district to one that Vice President Kamala Harris won by 3 percentage points. Sykes meanwhile outran Harris by 2 percentage points.
Several Republicans are running for the chance to face Sykes in November: Leetonia Mayor Kevin Siembida, former radio host Carey Coleman, Margaret Briem, a businesswoman, Sanjin Drakovac, a medical school graduate and Neil Patel, a perennial candidate.
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